Tuesday, January 08, 2008

I call bullsh*t on Cringely's 'predictions'

First of all - when you predict that Vista Sp1 will be shipped in 2007 and you get that wrong you can:

a) admit you were wrong by a month or two - not much but still 8-16% ...

or

b) claim that Vista SP1 just shipped (even if it's only RC1 right now).

And no, Vista was NEVER supposed to eliminate service packs, and EVERYBODY knew that SP1 will come very soon - you were just placing the wrong date on it ...

And now let's see what Cringely could see for 2008 ... hmm at no. 8 'Bill Gates will be retiring from Microsoft in 2008' - no kidding genius, and you made that bold prediction on the 4th of January when the Internet was already full with the funny movie showing what Bill will do after retiring at CES ...

And yes, at no. 10 we have 'a 3G iPhone is coming'. Wow, that was indeed unexpected and a bold prediction :) I guess your list was a little too thin ?

At 11 - 'Apple will introduce a subnotebook/tablet computer/media player' - can you be any LESS specific ? Not to mention that EVERYBODY will get a subnotebook in 2008 ...

At 12 - 'Along the same lines look for OS X to bifurcate clearly into two lines -- Mac OS X and plain OS X (for devices like the iPhone) with Apple licensing (non-Mac) OS X to a few companies, including Sony.' THIS WOULD BE THE DAY PIGS FLY AND HELL IS ALREADY ALL FROZEN !!! But I guess that you will claim you got it at least half right - since they have a mini-OSX for the iPhone ... oh, wait, that already took place in 2007 ??? Are those the ONLY bold prediction that you can get half-right ?

And at 13 - 'Apple will build into some Macs support for the Windows API, allowing Mac and Windows apps to run side by side with no need for virtualization software except to run Linux. This fits with Apple's surprising new role as a competitor to HP and Dell for the business workstation market. But what's REALLY surprising about this is it will all be with the permission of Microsoft, which will still get a license fee from Apple, though in this case it is for just licensing the API and promising not to keep any of the APIs secret. Therefore, could the logical successor to Windows Vista actually be OS X? Only if Apple licenses Mac OS X to other companies, which I don't see happening.' Is this one in any way related to the other famous moronic prediction (about 1-2 years ago) that Apple will start using Linux/Windows for their kernel ?

And just to have my first 'victory lap' of the year - just as predicted (at 2), recession has arrived but is not yet official :)

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