Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Predictions 2008

This year I will start with the non-technical part and only then go to the technical predictions.

1. Huge problems ahead for the more progressive US presidential candidates - with a very large probability of one being assassinated or dying in very strange conditions - the probability is directly related to their commitment to progressive values (and resistance to the military-industrial complex) and IMHO the 'risk order' goes like most likely = Kucinich (which was on a hit list before), Ron Paul (very, very likely given that unlike Kucinich he has no competitor of general-election-value - meaning not a religious nuts or 9/11 war monger - in his party), Edwards and also Obama (which is surprisingly low-risk-conservative lately but race might play here an extra role).

2. US recession will become official and will deepen.

3. Stock adjustments - AAPL under 100$, MSFT and GOOG down, also I don't see DELL going in the right direction if they keep doing stupid marketing choices.

4. Currency and oil-price problems.

And now let's get to the more technical part.

5. Nothing interesting from Apple - maybe a subnotebook but eeePC has already taken all their steam so they'll be left only with the fanboys willing to pay 1500-2000 US$ for a slimmer version of eeePC. The iPhone SDK will be a disappointment and the full iPhone v2 will be VERY late (maybe not even in 2008) since it might be possible to see a lower-end mini-iPhone or similar.

6. The 'Google phone' will not be a huge hit but will capture a defensible position on the market.

7. Almost all the big hits will come from less-established players (but not necessarily small - think Asus, but I am quite afraid that in their case the peak was reached with eeePC and now 'managers' will take over 'enthusiasts' with very poor results - but I hope they'll do better than Dell and prove me wrong). Also keep an eye on other companies in the same area - Sager, Clevo, maybe even Lenovo!

8. There will be an interesting battle in the OS arena with both Vista and Leopard getting better, but the largest growth will come from the other major player and 2008 might become 'the year of Linux' - and I will personally wait with a lot of hope for the next Ubuntu and Mandriva versions!

9. AMD is not looking good - they have totally missed so far the trend towards notebooks and now might miss the next trends , which will be ...

10. Overall 2008 will be the year of the subnotebooks and advanced mobile phones - but with a recession starting and with a rather saturated market 2008 is not the year to try to 'cash-in' as luxury items (as for instance Dell is trying) but instead is the year when the smartest players should go for the 'best value' range and gain market share and more important - followers ! (that is also the reason why it will probably be 'the year of Linux' - since that is currently the most solid and more-intelligence-less-instinct-driven community , but for a company to succeed in appealing to that segment they really need to have a good hardware product at a decent price).

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